Pristine Market Analysis & Watchlist 4/13

Bank Earnings Incoming!

Team,

The earnings tracking grind begins tomorrow! Make sure to keep an eye on the earnings channel in Discord for the latest updates.

-Andrew

---

Today’s session kicked off with the PPI report at 8:30 AM. MoM PPI came in below estimates at -.5%, and YoY came in below estimates at 2.7%.

I’d like to take a moment to emphasize that YoY PPI is now BELOW 3%. There are investors out there that are still screaming their heads off as if inflation is still at 10+% YoY, but we have to acknowledge that we’ve come a long way from the peak.

BUT…did this really change anything in the world of Fixed Income? Not really! The market is still pricing in a 68.7% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike in May.

And fed fund futures further out in the future really did not change either. With that being said though, the market is still pricing in rate CUTS into the end of 2023 and early 2024. This implicitly means that the market already knows inflation is going to decline enough into the end of the year to warrant rate cuts!

It appears that the bond market was way ahead of the stock market beginning with the regional banking crisis. Treasury futures made a dramatic leg higher at that time, and stocks are now catching up.

Equity Dashboard

Equities closed on the highs of the day, and with 74.7% advancers! The ARKK innovation ETF led our headline indices, and volatility was CRUSHED!

Megacap technology stocks led the market higher on the back of weaker inflation!

ES_F S&P 500 Price Action Analysis

We’ve referenced this in plenty of recent research notes, but it is definitely important to keep the ~4,252 yearly value area high level on your screens as a logical upside target should this rally accelerate. Earnings season kicks off tomorrow with the banks, and that will likely determine the next market direction!

ES_F Weekly Chart

In the following sections of tonight’s update, I’ll cover my research in preparation for tomorrow’s trading session

✅ Trend Model Update - Our proprietary indicator that informs us on how aggressive/defensive to position in the market

✅Market Strategy - My trading plan

✅ Today’s Trade Blotter and Position Update

✅Daily Watchlist - We scan thousands of stocks and hand-pick the best reward/risk opportunities