Pristine Market Analysis & Watchlist

📈When in doubt, zoom out!

• Initial jobless claims tick higher → bond rally

• 5-day EMA’s catch up to headline equity indices

Team,

Let’s take a look at what is brewing under the hood of today’s chop. HAGE🍻

-Andrew

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News/Economic Data

Initial jobless claims came in higher than expected, and industrial production data came out weaker than expected. This adds fuel to the belief among market participants that both the economy and inflation are slowing👇

Long-Term Treasuries

TLT long-term treasuries continue to take two steps forward and one step back. Notice that we are the pink 20-day SMA is beginning to lift higher, and the shorter term 10-day EMA and 5-day EMA are crossing above the 50-day SMA! The trend is clearly improving! 👇

FX Market

The dollar index is working off it’s oversold condition with a sideways consolidation. A weak dollar is bullish for risk assets✅

Energy

I’ve said this before, but it is worth pointing out again…crude oil was trading at $95/barrel in late September…
And now it’s at $73.25/barrel less than two months later! 🤯

The price action is telling us that market participant’s concerns are shifting from runaway inflation to economic slowdown. The mainstream narrative is not quite there yet, but we all know that the narrative ALWAYS lags price action 💪

Equity Dashboard

An overbought market…got even more overbought! 👇

Index Price Cycle Monitor

All green 👇

We’ve discussed how short-term overbought the indices were in prior notes. Well guess what?! The 5-day EMA’s just caught up! Every day the indices move sideways, the risk/reward improves. Be patient.

Index Performance Monthly

The price action the past few days has been choppy, but when in doubt, ZOOM OUT!

The indices have all put in a full year’s worth of returns in about two weeks 👇

In the following sections of tonight’s update, I’ll cover my research in preparation for tomorrow’s trading session

✅ Trend Model Update - Our proprietary indicator that informs us on how aggressive/defensive to position in the market

✅Market Strategy - My trading plan

✅ Today’s Trade Blotter and Position Update

✅Daily Watchlist - We scan thousands of stocks and hand-pick the best reward/risk opportunities