Pristine Market Analysis & Watchlist 7/5

Crude oil rips and treasuries dip!

Team,

The headline indices are pinned in slow summer trading, but under the surface we are seeing a risk-off tone. Let’s dive in!

-Andrew

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Economic Data

US Factory orders MoM came in lighter than expected this morning, and fed minutes did not reveal much in the way of new information.

CME Fedwatch

The July fed meeting is in three weeks, and the market is pricing in an 89.9% chance of a 25 basis point rate hike.

10Yr Treasury Futures

The long end of the US yield curve was smoked once again! Bonds have now given back almost all of their gains since the banking crisis began.

The correlation between the Nasdaq QQQ and ZN_F 10yr treasury futures has reversed from a strong positive relationship to a strong negative relationship.

Equity Dashboard

The dispersion trade remains alive and well. Only 35.3% of stocks advanced, but some of the large megacaps were bid, leaving the S&P 500 pinned in place.

Index MTD July Performance

3 out of 4 of our tracked indices are in the red for July, but it is still early! The first two weeks of July is the best seasonal period of the year.

Index After Hours Price Action

ES S&P 500 -.07% (5 EMA Pullback)

NQ Nasdaq -.06% (5 EMA Pullback)

YM Dow Jones -.09% (5 EMA Pullback)

RTY Russell 2000 -.13% (20 SMA Pullback)

In the following sections of tonight’s update, I’ll cover my research in preparation for tomorrow’s trading session

✅ Trend Model Update - Our proprietary indicator that informs us on how aggressive/defensive to position in the market

✅Market Strategy - My trading plan

✅ Today’s Trade Blotter and Position Update

✅Daily Watchlist - We scan thousands of stocks and hand-pick the best reward/risk opportunities