Pristine Market Analysis & Watchlist 5/4

Market Madness

Team,

Between earnings, economic data, Fed Wednesday, and bank failures, this has been as busy as it gets for one trading week…and it all caps off with the NFP employment report tomorrow morning. Without further ado, let’s dive in 👊

-Andrew

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Economic Data

Today’s session kicked off with initial jobless claims data that came in slightly above estimates:

PACW Bites the Dust

After announcing post-market 5/3 that it would be looking for a buyer, PACW fell 50.62% today, and dragged plenty of financials stocks down with it!

The selling in banking stocks is justified, but are things going a bit too far? Western Alliance WAL closed yesterday’s session at $29.57, and traded down to as low as $11.35 on a rumor that it was also seeking a buyer! That is a 61.6% fall on a rumor! They put out the following statement in response, saying that the rumor was completely false, and that they would be seeking legal action in response:

Can you imagine if there was wrong with WAL, but the stock movement created by the rumor sparked a panic that led to the demise of the bank? The stakes are incredibly high here. I would imagine that if the banks continue to trade this way, there will be some sort of legislation put in place to safeguard some of these institutions. This is getting a bit crazy.

Treasury Action

The market is still pricing in rate cuts into year end. Tomorrow’s NFP report could definitely create waves in the short-term interest rate market!

Despite bonds across the curve trading higher today, TLT failed at the white downward trendline☟

Equity Dashboard

Equity breadth was weak today at only 30%, but the ARKK ETF and other high growth stocks had a good showing on a relative basis. Volatility expanded dramatically throughout the session, but closed off the highs.

ES_F S&P 500 Price Action Analysis

The S&P 500 trend is broken. We traded down to the 50-day SMA and found some buyers intraday, but we are barely getting a lift after AAPL’s earnings report this evening.

AAPL Earnings

AAPL put up the following numbers after the bell:

And is trading back to levels not seen since…yesterday. It’s still too early to tell where the stock heads from here, but at the very least, we know that it did not plunge into the abyss and take the S&P 500 with it!

In the following sections of tonight’s update, I’ll cover my research in preparation for tomorrow’s trading session

✅ Trend Model Update - Our proprietary indicator that informs us on how aggressive/defensive to position in the market

✅Market Strategy - My trading plan

✅ Today’s Trade Blotter and Position Update

✅Daily Watchlist - We scan thousands of stocks and hand-pick the best reward/risk opportunities