Pristine Market Analysis & Watchlist 3/8

High Risk/ Low Edge

Team,

Non-farm payrolls data is coming Friday 3/10, and CPI is coming 3/14. We remain in a high risk/low edge environment until these two data points are in the rear view. Patience is a virtue!

-Andrew

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Powell’s Testimony - Day 2

We didn’t gather any meaningful new information from Powell’s second day of testimony. Our key takeaway from both days is that Powell is willing to do a 50 basis point rate hike in March IF the data leading into the meeting comes out hotter than expected.

Fed Fund Futures

Interest rate markets are now pricing in a 78.6% probability of a 50 basis point rate hike at the March 22nd meeting, meaning market participants do believe that either the upcoming NFP report and/or CPI report will come out hotter than expected.

A 5.65% federal funds rate is now being priced in for the September fed meeting.

MOVE Index On the Move

The MOVE index, which measures treasury volatility, declined as bond markets largely digested yesterday’s rates move. It’s clear that the market is waiting for further information.

DXY Dollar Index Rally

I have good news and bad news for you tonight. The good news is, the dollar index didn’t rip higher like it did yesterday. The bad news? The dollar didn’t sell off either! Currency traders are clearly waiting for more information.

CL_F Crude Oil Also Pricing Recession?

Crude oil put in another red candle, and is now trading at $76.64/barrel. One of the big risks heading into the week was that crude would potentially run up to the YTD high of ~$82.66. So far it appears that we dodged a bullet!

Equity Dashboard

After completely washing out to the downside yesterday, equities had a minor bounce on mixed breadth today. This also looks like a market that is waiting for further information.

ES_F S&P 500 Price Action Analysis

ES rejected at the 20-day SMA, the monthly value area low ~4,058, and is still trading below the 50-day SMA. It’s great that the market put in a green candle, but did the technical picture change at all? No! This market is waiting for more information.

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In the following sections of tonight’s update, I’ll cover my research in preparation for tomorrow’s trading session

✅ Trend Model Update - Our proprietary indicator that informs us on how aggressive/defensive to position in the market

✅Market Strategy - My trading plan

✅ Today’s Trade Blotter and Position Update

✅Daily Watchlist - We scan thousands of stocks and hand-pick the best reward/risk opportunities