Pristine Market Analysis & Watchlist 3/9

Bank Blowups and Binary Events

Team,

Yesterday’s commentary still stands:

Non-farm payrolls data is coming Friday 3/10, and CPI is coming 3/14. We remain in a high risk/low edge environment until these two data points are in the rear view. Patience is a virtue!

This has been an incredibly tough environment to navigate for punters. But if you’ve been reducing your trading volume during these high risk/low edge periods of time, you’ve likely been doing just fine. Tune out the noise as best you can, and trade the market in front of you!

-Andrew

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Silicon Valley Bank - SIVB

In almost every fed tightening cycle, the fed tightens monetary until something breaks. Well…the process of ‘stuff breaking’ might be underway. I’m sure you’ve heard all about this in nauseating detail today, but Silicon Valley Bank (Ticker SIVB) may or may not be going bust!

SIVB banks nearly half of all US venture-backed startups…

And is small component of the S&P 500 index! I don’t blame any investment manager for panicking as they see an S&P 500 constituent lose 60% of it’s value in a single session

Equity Dashboard

This created panic-selling in equities. We finished today’s session with only 6.3% advancers.

ES_F S&P 500 Price Action Analysis

The S&P 500 closed decisively below the 200-day SMA! And we are now approaching the teal downward trendline from which the rabid bullishness this year began.

Fed Fund Futures

The market is now pricing in a 64.6% probability of a 50 basis point rate hike.

And fed fund futures moved off of their parabolic highs. It appears that the market is pricing in the fed having to back slightly off of their tightening due to the emerging cracks in the system

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In the following sections of tonight’s update, I’ll cover my research in preparation for tomorrow’s trading session

✅ Trend Model Update - Our proprietary indicator that informs us on how aggressive/defensive to position in the market

✅Market Strategy - My trading plan

✅ Today’s Trade Blotter and Position Update

✅Daily Watchlist - We scan thousands of stocks and hand-pick the best reward/risk opportunities